Euro 2024

Italy vs Albania Euro 2024 Prediction

Italy kick off the defence of their European Championship on Saturday night when they host Albania in Group B.

Arguably the easiest of the Italians group stage fixtures as they have Spain and Croatia to face afterwards. But with 16 of the 24 nations progressing from the group stage you can expect teams to go through on 3 points anyway.

Luciano Spalletti’s side only finished runners-up in qualifying ahead of Ukraine on head-to-head record. They suffered defeats and home and away to England and were held to a 0-0 draw in North Macedonia. Malta made up the other team in the group.

The Azzurri coompletely avoided any negative publicity in the press three years ago with their gamesmanship in the Euro 2021 final versus England – Jorginho staying down feining an injury for several minutes to allow then head coach Roberto Mancini to change tactics during times when England were on top. The same player, alongside Giorgio Chiellini were caught on camera several times trying to give the opposition dead legs off the ball. And Jorginho’s nasty tackle late in extra-time on Jack Grealish avoided a red card.

Many of their experienced, “cheat to win” players are now retired and the head coach has an exciting, younger team to play with here in Germany. Gianluigi Donnarumma has 62 caps already at the age of 25, Internazionale’s Alessandro Bastoni should be part of a back three in front of him. Jorginho should be partnered by Bryan Cristante in centre midfield, but the likes of Nicolo Barella and Nicolo Fagioli could miss the opener through injuries.

Federico Chiesa should be their biggest goal threat. The son of legend Enrico Chiesa scored 9 in 33 Serie A games for Juventus from out wide this season. He could be partnered by the tall Gianluca Scamacca, who is anything but prolific for club and country.

Albania have qualified for the Euros for the second time in the nation’s history, having previously played eight years ago. Their star man is Chelsea’s Armando Broja, but he played less than 500 minutes of Premier League football this past season, with only six start, for both Chelsea and then a loan spell at Fulham. It’s difficult to predict where he is in terms of match fitness and form.

Expect a defensive shape from Sylvinho’s side, even though you don’t want to be playing for draws in this group – they should be looking for an upset victory. We could see a back four and two holding midfielders in a narrow formation. Several of this squad do play in Italy, a nation renowned for its defensive football. Goalkeeper Etrit Berisha plays for Empoli, defenders Elseid Hysaj (Lazio), Berat Gjimshiti (Atalanta) and Marash Kumbulla (Sassuolo) should all start.

In front of them we could see Internazionale’s Kristjan Asllani and Lecce’s Yiber Ramadani.

I am not placing a bet on this game unless I see anything in play. I expect a slow, defensive game with Italy dominating posession.