World Cup

Mexico vs South Africa 2026 World Cup prediction

The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off on Thursday with co-hosts Mexico facing South Africa in the opening game for a second time in the competition’s history.

These two also met in the opening game of 2010 when South Africa were the hosts of the competition. The CONMEBOL side went into the game as odds on favourites but were held 1-1. South Africa would go on to become the first host nation in World Cup history to fail to progress from the group stage.

16 years on and Mexico head into this opening game as odds on favourites once again. And provided the pressure of 80,000 home supporters cheering them on, I am expecting a “home” win in this one.

The disadvantage of hosting the World Cup is that you have less competitive fixtures leading up to the tournament itself. Since winning the Gold Cup in 2025, Mexico have had 13 friendlies. Worth noting that they beat Saudi Arabia and Honduras to nil in the Gold Cup before beating a strong USA side 2-1 in the final, in Houston.

Mexico are lead by head coach Javier Aguirre for a third time in a World Cup. The 67-year-old was in charge in 2002 when they won their group which included Italy, Croatia and Ecuador before losing 2-0 to the USA in the first knockout game. Aguirre was in charge once again in 2010 when they finished runners-up to Uruguary in the group stage that also included South Africa, and France. But lost 3-1 to Diego Maradona’s Argentina in the first knockout game.

El Tricolor have good pedigree in the group stage under this head coach. They also have a unique record of reaching the quarter-finals of both previous World Cups they’ve hosted (1970 and 1986) but have never reached that stage outside of Mexico. In fact, they went 7 consecutive World Cups being knocked out at the round of 16 between 1994-2018 before failing to make it out of the group in Qatar 4.5 years ago.

The current Mexican national team includes former West Ham United and Ajax centre-back Edson Álvarez, Genoa’s Johan Vásquez, Real Betis’ Álvaro Fidalgo, Wolverhampton Wanderers’ Raúl Jiménez, Anderlecht’s César Huerta, and 17-year-old Gilberto Mora.

Meanwhile this is far from a South African squad of stars. It’s worth pointing out a successful qualifying campaign – finishing top of a group that included Nigeria with 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses (one of which was awarded to Lesotho because South Africa fielded a suspended player).

I do a lot of research and watch many international games leading up to World Cups, which is why I have a second-to-none tip rate in this competition. But South Africa has been one of the tougher ones to scout. The majority of their squad are home based, with the only notable names being Burnley forward Lyle Foster, who scored just 3 goals in 26 Premier League appearances this past season.

South Africa have one player in the German 2. Bundesliga – Hannover 96’s Ime Okon, and two players in the MLS – Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union defenders Mbekezeli Mbokazi and Olwethu Makhanya, and Tondela’s Yaya Sithole, who have just been relegated from the Portuguese top flight.

I expect Mexico to get off to a quick start in both this game, with a first half lead and 3 points. I simply believe they have too much quality, and their experienced coach will benefit them in the opener.

Best bet: Mexico half-time/full-time 6/5 with Bet365